Is Now the Right Time to Buy Gold?
As of September 14, 2026, The Gold Barometer reads 33 out of 100. Today's gold buying conditions in the US market are Unfavorable, compared with every trading day since 1971.
The gold hand is today. The thin steel one has not moved since last week. If the gold hand sits to its right, conditions are improving. To its left, they are getting worse. Ships' barometers work the same way: set a marker, then read the drift.
When this reading enters a new zone, you get one email.
Nobody checks a barometer every day. If the score climbs out of this zone, the email finds you.
What it means
If you are buying gold to hold, today is a poor moment by this measure.
Here is what that has meant. $10,000 put into gold in a month scoring like today's was worth about $8,424 of shopping five years later. The same $10,000 put in during the best zone on record was worth about $14,853.
Of the 668 months we can rebuild since 1971, 114 have read lower than today.
The natural next thought is to wait for a better zone. Waiting has a record of its own, and we measured it.
None of this is a forecast for next month. Measured the same way, money put in during months like today's was worth about 0.4% less a year later. Almost nothing either way at one year. The real gap opened by year five. So this is a reading for money you mean to keep, not money you might need back soon.
What the reading does not tell you
- It does not say which way the price is about to go, this week or this year.
- It does not know your age, your savings or your reasons, and those decide more than any score.
- The Barometer measures conditions. It is an instrument, not advice.
The formula, the weights, the seven data sources and the full history since 1971 are all on this site. No dealer pays for placement, and no dealer touches the score. Every daily reading is copied to a public GitHub archive.
- 1 Seven things measured. Cash after inflation, entry price, central-bank buying, US dollar, trader bets, price jumpiness, retail premiums.
- 2 Each ranked against its own past. A number from 0 (worst it has ever been for a long-term buyer) to 100 (best).
- 3 History attached. What gold did next from each zone, all the way back to 1971.
- 4 Updated once a day. Same formula. No silent edits. A note whenever anything changes.
Read the full method. It lists the seven parts, the weights, what we do when a source is stale, and where the framework has been wrong.
The seven things on the dial
When a part is left out for the day, the other parts share its weight. The score still reads out of 100.
Each number is where today ranks against that thing's own past. 0 is the worst it has ever been for a long-term buyer. 100 is the best. The weights and the strength of the evidence for each are on the method page.
The reading over time
The line rebuilds the score month by month back to October 2019. We used only the data that existed on each date. The newest points are daily readings, published each evening. Every point before August 2026 is a monthly rebuild. Tap or hover any date to see its score.
View the underlying data as a table
| Date | Score | Zone | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-31 | 58 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2019-11-30 | 60 | Favorable | reconstructed |
| 2019-12-31 | 58 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2020-01-31 | 57 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2020-02-29 | 52 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2020-03-31 | 49 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2020-04-30 | 48 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2020-05-31 | 52 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2020-06-30 | 48 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2020-07-31 | 47 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2020-08-31 | 49 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2020-09-30 | 48 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2020-10-31 | 49 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2020-11-30 | 52 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2020-12-31 | 51 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2021-01-31 | 53 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2021-02-28 | 55 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2021-03-31 | 61 | Favorable | reconstructed |
| 2021-04-30 | 64 | Favorable | reconstructed |
| 2021-05-31 | 58 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2021-06-30 | 61 | Favorable | reconstructed |
| 2021-07-31 | 61 | Favorable | reconstructed |
| 2021-08-31 | 63 | Favorable | reconstructed |
| 2021-09-30 | 63 | Favorable | reconstructed |
| 2021-10-31 | 61 | Favorable | reconstructed |
| 2021-11-30 | 56 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2021-12-31 | 59 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2022-01-31 | 54 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2022-02-28 | 50 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2022-03-31 | 47 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2022-04-30 | 47 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2022-05-31 | 52 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2022-06-30 | 49 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2022-07-31 | 56 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2022-08-31 | 55 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2022-09-30 | 49 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2022-10-31 | 50 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2022-11-30 | 53 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2022-12-31 | 48 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2023-01-31 | 49 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2023-02-28 | 55 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2023-03-31 | 48 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2023-04-30 | 45 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2023-05-31 | 42 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2023-06-30 | 47 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2023-07-31 | 47 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2023-08-31 | 50 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2023-09-30 | 49 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2023-10-31 | 42 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2023-11-30 | 44 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2023-12-31 | 45 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2024-01-31 | 47 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2024-02-29 | 48 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2024-03-31 | 40 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2024-04-30 | 35 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2024-05-31 | 36 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2024-06-30 | 35 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2024-07-31 | 35 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2024-08-31 | 34 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2024-09-30 | 35 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2024-10-31 | 32 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2024-11-30 | 30 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2024-12-31 | 31 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2025-01-31 | 31 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2025-02-28 | 33 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2025-03-31 | 35 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2025-04-30 | 36 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2025-05-31 | 35 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2025-06-30 | 39 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2025-07-31 | 39 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2025-08-31 | 40 | Mixed | reconstructed |
| 2025-09-30 | 39 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2025-10-31 | 39 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2025-11-30 | 38 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2025-12-31 | 37 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2026-01-31 | 38 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2026-02-28 | 39 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2026-03-31 | 33 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2026-04-30 | 35 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2026-05-31 | 33 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2026-06-30 | 31 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2026-07-31 | 32 | Unfavorable | reconstructed |
| 2026-08-05 | 33 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-06 | 33 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-07 | 33 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-08 | 33 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-09 | 33 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-10 | 33 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-11 | 29 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-12 | 29 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-13 | 29 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-14 | 30 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-15 | 30 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-16 | 30 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-17 | 30 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-18 | 31 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-19 | 30 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-20 | 30 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-21 | 29 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-22 | 29 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-23 | 29 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-24 | 29 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-25 | 29 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-26 | 29 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-27 | 30 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-28 | 31 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-29 | 31 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-30 | 31 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-08-31 | 31 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-09-01 | 32 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-09-02 | 33 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-09-03 | 32 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-09-04 | 31 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-09-05 | 31 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-09-06 | 31 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-09-07 | 31 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-09-08 | 33 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-09-09 | 32 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-09-10 | 33 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-09-11 | 33 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-09-12 | 33 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-09-13 | 33 | Unfavorable | published |
| 2026-09-14 | 33 | Unfavorable | published |
Why 1971, and what that date cannot do for you
Before 1971, the price of gold was not free to move. Governments fixed it. A country could not simply decide what an ounce was worth on a Tuesday.
In August 1971 the United States ended that arrangement, and the price began to float. Measuring buying conditions only makes sense after that point, because before it there were no conditions to read. The price was whatever it had been told to be.
So 1971 is not a round number we liked. It is the first day this measurement means anything at all.
This instrument did not exist in 1971
This instrument did not exist in 1971. It was built in 2026. Every reading before then is one we rebuilt, month by month, using only the figures that were actually published by that date. Using only what was known on each date keeps hindsight out of the method. It is still not the same thing as having been there.
There is a second limit worth knowing. Fifty-five years sounds long, and it is a few hundred months. But those months overlap heavily, and gold has only been through a handful of genuinely separate episodes in that time. The record is long in months and short in stories.
A number with 55 years behind it can look sturdier than it is. The whole test is on the history page, including the stretches where the method was wrong.
One email. Only when the needle moves to a new zone.
No newsletter. No noise. We write to you when the reading changes zone.
Common questions
Is now a good time to buy gold?
As of September 14, 2026, The Gold Barometer reads 33/100: Unfavorable. The Barometer measures conditions. It is not advice, and it does not predict the price. The formula and the full history since 1971 are on this site.
How much gold should I own?
The Barometer takes no view on how much gold to own. It only tells you how today's conditions compare with every trading day since 1971. How much to hold depends on you.
Should I buy gold a little at a time?
Buying a little each month, instead of all at once, is one common approach. The history page shows how each approach worked from each zone, using only data that was available at the time.
What is the downside of owning gold?
Gold pays no interest and its price can fall for long stretches. The history page publishes the worst drop within a year, and within five years, that followed each zone since 1971.
Has gold bottomed?
The Barometer does not call bottoms. It tells you where today sits against every trading day since 1971, across seven things it measures, and what those readings led to on average.
Is gold overvalued at current prices?
The entry-price section compares today's price, after inflation, with its long-run average (Erb and Harvey, 2013). The current reading is on the entry-price signal page.
Full-page answers: selling now, waiting for a drop, buying at a record, buying the dip, and the best time to buy.