Gold Price Is Dropping: Buy the Dip or Stay Out?
As of August 25, 2026, The Gold Barometer reads 29 out of 100. Since 1971, gold's end-of-month price has fallen 20% or more from its peak 5 times. After first crossing that line, the price fell a further 23.6% to its bottom, in the middle case, before inflation.
The alert
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What the record says
The first 20% down was usually not the bottom, and buying there still paid, in the middle case, five years on.
Both halves matter, and both are measured before inflation. The dip buyer of the record typically watched the price fall a further -23.6% before it turned. The reward only came to buyers who could hold through that second fall.
In 2 of the 5 completed falls, the price five years on was still below the crossing point. One kept falling for 231 months, about 19 years. A median of 5 episodes is a thin rail to lean on, which is why the table below shows every one.
Every 20% fall since 1971
| Peak | Crossed −20% | Bottom | Total depth | Further fall after the crossing | 1 year after crossing | 5 years after crossing | Peak regained |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 1973 | November 1973 | November 1973 | -20.8% | 0.0% | 91.6% | 116.8% | January 1974 |
| December 1974 | September 1975 | August 1976 | -40.2% | -23.6% | -20.8% | 368.1% | March 1978 |
| January 1980 | April 1980 | July 1999 | -62.1% | -50.5% | -4.1% | -36.8% | May 2006 |
| March 2008 | November 2008 | November 2008 | -21.4% | 0.0% | 48.1% | 67.7% | September 2009 |
| September 2011 | May 2013 | December 2015 | -39.3% | -23.9% | -8.8% | -7.9% | July 2020 |
End-of-month prices, before inflation. The January 1980 episode is the warning in the set. It crossed −20% within months, then fell another 50.5% over 231 months. The peak was only regained in May 2006.
What a falling price does to the score
A falling price usually lifts the entry price part of the score, because the metal gets cheaper against its own history. The other six parts move on their own clocks, so a dip does not mechanically mean better conditions. The blend, updated daily, is the reading on the home page.
A related question has its own page: what waiting for a further drop has meant, measured the same way, is on the waiting page.
The instrument behind these numbers
- Buying conditions today
- Unfavorable
- Months like this since 1971
- 151
- Falls of 20%+ on record
- 5
Common questions
Has gold crashed like this before?
5 times since 1971, counting end-of-month prices 20% under their peak. The table on this page lists each one: when it started, where it bottomed, and what followed.
How long did the falls last?
From first crossing 20% down to the bottom took a median 11.0 months. One case stands far outside the rest: the January 1980 fall kept sliding for 231 months.
What happened five years after buying the dip?
A median 67.7% before inflation, measured from the first 20% crossing. But in 2 of the 5 completed falls, the price five years on was still below the crossing point. The median hides that range.
Is the current fall one of these episodes?
This table is built on end-of-month prices, so an episode only enters it when a month ends 20% under the peak. Today’s reading and its zone, updated daily, are on the home page.
Today's reading, with the buyer's verdict and the evidence behind it, is on the home page. One email goes out the day the reading moves to a new zone, in either direction. The sign-up is just below.
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