Gold Price Is Dropping: Buy the Dip or Stay Out?
As of October 9, 2026, a 20% fall from a gold peak was followed by a further 23.6% drop to the bottom. That is the middle case, before inflation, over the 5 times since 1971 that the monthly average price crossed that line. The Gold Barometer reads 33 out of 100.
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Since 1971 that has happened 94 times, about twice a year. The last time was March 2026.
What the record says
The first 20% down was usually not the bottom, and buying there still paid, in the middle case, five years on.
Both halves matter, and both are measured before inflation. The dip buyer of the record typically watched the price fall a further -23.6% before it turned. The reward only came to buyers who could hold through that second fall.
In 2 of the 5 completed falls, the price five years on was still below the crossing point. One kept falling for 231 months, about 19 years. A median of 5 episodes is a thin rail to lean on, which is why the table below shows every one.
Every 20% fall since 1971
| Peak | Crossed −20% | Bottom | Total depth | Further fall after the crossing | 1 year after crossing | 5 years after crossing | Peak regained |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 1973 | November 1973 | November 1973 | -20.8% | 0.0% | 91.6% | 116.8% | January 1974 |
| December 1974 | September 1975 | August 1976 | -40.2% | -23.6% | -20.8% | 368.1% | March 1978 |
| January 1980 | April 1980 | July 1999 | -62.1% | -50.5% | -4.1% | -36.8% | May 2006 |
| March 2008 | November 2008 | November 2008 | -21.4% | 0.0% | 48.1% | 67.7% | September 2009 |
| September 2011 | May 2013 | December 2015 | -39.3% | -23.9% | -8.8% | -7.9% | July 2020 |
Monthly average prices, before inflation. The January 1980 episode is the warning in the set. It crossed −20% within months, then fell another 50.5% over 231 months. The peak was only regained in May 2006.
What a falling price does to the score
What moved alongside the price over 7 and 30 days is on why is gold going up or down, rebuilt every night. A falling price usually lifts the entry price part of the score, because the metal gets cheaper against its own history. The other six parts move on their own clocks, so a dip does not mechanically mean better conditions. The blend, updated daily, is the reading on the home page.
What waiting for a further drop has meant, measured the same way, is on should you wait for gold to drop. The same five episodes, read from the peak, are on how long gold took to recover after each peak, before and after inflation.
The instrument behind these numbers
- Buying conditions today
- Unfavorable
- Months like this since 1971
- 153
- Falls of 20%+ on record
- 5
Which of the seven conditions moved this month is on why is gold going up or down. Each condition has its own page.
Related questions
- Why is gold going up or down right now?
- Should you wait for gold to drop before buying?
- How long did gold take to recover after each peak?
Common questions
Has gold crashed like this before?
5 times since 1971, counting monthly average prices 20% under their peak. The table on this page lists each one: when it started, where it bottomed, and what followed.
How long did the falls last?
From first crossing 20% down to the bottom took a median 11.0 months. One case stands far outside the rest: the January 1980 fall kept sliding for 231 months.
What happened five years after buying the dip?
A median 67.7% before inflation, measured from the first 20% crossing. But in 2 of the 5 completed falls, the price five years on was still below the crossing point. The median hides that range.
Can gold prices go down?
Yes, and by a lot. Since 1971 the monthly average price fell 20% or more from a peak 5 times. The deepest fall, from January 1980, took the price down 62.1%, and the dollar price only got back to that peak in May 2006. Gold holds its value over long stretches, not over every stretch.
Is the current fall one of these episodes?
This table is built on monthly average prices, so an episode only enters it when a month’s average sits 20% under the peak. Today’s reading and its zone, updated daily, are on the home page.
Today's reading, with the buyer's verdict and the evidence behind it, is on the home page. One email goes out the day the reading moves to a new zone, in either direction. The sign-up is just below.
One email per zone change
Get one email the day gold buying conditions enter a new zone. Up or down.
Since 1971 that has happened 94 times, about twice a year. The last time was March 2026.