Is Gold Expensive Right Now?
As of October 9, 2026, gold costs more than in 99.2% of all months since 1960, measured after inflation on the September 2026 average price. The Gold Barometer reads 33 out of 100, and the entry price part of the score reads 34.
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Since 1971 that has happened 94 times, about twice a year. The last time was March 2026.
What the record says
Against its own past, gold is high: only 0.8% of the months since 1960 cost more after inflation. High has not meant a fall. It has meant thinner and less certain gains.
From months in the top tenth of their own past, the median five-year change after inflation was +6.3%. From the band just below, it was +28.7%. The price was higher five years on in 53.4% of the top-tenth months, against 70.7% in the band below.
The top tenth holds 246 of the 669 months on record, because a rising metal spends long stretches at new highs against its own past. Those months come from a few long eras, not from hundreds of separate bets. The longest: 1972 to 1975, 1978 to 1981, 2009 to 2014, 2019 to 2022, 2022 to 2025. The worst five-year case from that band was -66.9%.
What followed, by where the price stood against its own past
Each row is a band of months, sorted by how high the price stood against every earlier month after inflation. Read across for what followed.
| Price against its own past | Months since 1971 | 1 year later, before inflation | 5 years later, before inflation | 5 years later, after inflation | Higher after 5 years, after inflation | Worst 5-year case, after inflation | 10 years later, after inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top tenth, above 90% | 246 | +7.8% | +35.5% | +6.3% | 53.4% of 191 | -66.9% | +8.4% |
| 75 to 90% | 169 | +8.5% | +49.8% | +28.7% | 70.7% of 164 | -44.0% | +34.4% |
| 50 to 75% | 95 | +0.3% | +4.9% | -12.0% | 16.8% of 95 | -43.0% | -21.0% |
| 25 to 50% | 145 | +5.1% | +49.3% | +31.6% | 63.4% of 145 | -41.5% | +137.1% |
| Bottom quarter, under 25% | 12 | +47.7% | +210.7% | +120.3% | 100.0% of 12 | +81.7% | +389.5% |
Monthly average prices, World Bank series, each divided by the US consumer price index of its month. A month's place is measured against every earlier month back to 1960, as it was known at the time. Changes are medians of the months in the band, from the point-in-time record. The bottom quarter holds 12 months, all in 1971, when the price had just left its fixed level. Too few to lean on. Where a month's index is not yet published, the last published one is used.
Two ways to say "expensive"
The first is against the last year. The price used today sits 5.8% below its own 12-month average, and +3.4% over twelve months. That is the trend check, and it moves fast.
The second is against the whole record after inflation. That is the check this page is built on, and it moves slowly. A metal can be below its own recent trend and still stand near the top of its long history. Today it does both.
Is gold in a bubble?
Bubble is a word for a price that has left whatever supports it, and it is only ever proven afterwards. We do not use it, because nobody knows in advance which highs will hold. Two things can be measured instead. After inflation, the price stands higher than 99.2% of the months since 1960. And at the 5 past peaks followed by a 20% fall, the barometer read between 48 and 57, all in the Mixed zone. Neither number says the price has peaked. Both say a buyer today pays more, against the past, than almost anyone before.
Why the bands do not line up neatly
The band from 50 to 75 shows weaker results than the top tenth. That is the record, not a mistake. Its 95 months all fall between 1984 and 2006, with long stretches in 1984 to 1986, 1988 to 1991, years when the price drifted down. A band is a set of eras, and eras differ. The table shows every band so the reader sees the shape, not a smoothed line.
The two checks and the research behind them are on the entry price signal page. What buying within 5% of a record has paid is on is it too late to buy gold. How long each peak took to come back is on how long gold took to recover after each peak. The same bands read from the other side, for someone holding gold, are on should you sell your gold now.
The instrument behind these numbers
- Buying conditions today
- Unfavorable
- Months like this since 1971
- 153
- Entry price part today
- 34 out of 100
Which of the seven conditions moved this month is on why is gold going up or down. Each condition has its own page.
Related questions
- Is it too late to buy gold?
- Gold to silver ratio: today and since 1960
- Why is gold going up or down right now?
Common questions
Is gold overvalued right now?
We do not use that word, because it assumes a fair price nobody knows. We measure where the price sits against its own past. After inflation, the September 2026 average was higher than 99.2% of all months since 1960. That is the top tenth of the record.
Does a price this high mean gold will fall?
The record does not say so. Take the 246 months in the top tenth of their own past. Five years later, the price was higher after inflation in 53.4% of cases. The median change was +6.3%, the worst case -66.9%. A wide range, not a direction.
Is gold in a bubble, and has it peaked?
Nobody can say in advance, and this site does not try. What can be measured: after inflation, the price stands higher than 99.2% of the months since 1960. The 5 past peaks followed by a 20% fall are on the recovery page, with how long each took to come back.
Why measure after inflation?
A dollar of 1980 and a dollar of today are not the same unit. Dividing each month's price by the consumer price index of that month puts every month in the same unit, so the comparison holds across decades.
What is the entry price part of the score?
One of the seven parts of The Gold Barometer. It blends two checks: how far the price sits from its own 12-month average, and where it stands against its long-run past after inflation. A high real price pulls it down. Today it reads 34 out of 100.
Today's reading, with the buyer's verdict and the evidence behind it, is on the home page. One email goes out the day the reading moves to a new zone, in either direction. The sign-up is just below.
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Since 1971 that has happened 94 times, about twice a year. The last time was March 2026.