Central-bank buying
This condition measures how much gold the world's central banks are buying. It also tracks how much gold sits in ETFs, the funds that let people add or remove exposure quickly. Central banks are patient buyers who rarely sell. ETF holdings move at the same time as the price, so they confirm rather than predict.
- Share of the score
- 15%
- Share used today
- 16.7%
- Source
- IMF IRFCL for central banks' gold holdings, plus SPDR Gold Shares tonnes for ETFs (internal)
- How often it updates
- varies by source
- Date of the newest figure
- 2026-09-17
- Newest figure
- n/a
- How fresh it is
- Up to date. The newest figure is 3 days old, and we stop counting this part once it passes 45 days. An old figure left counting would quietly drag the score toward whatever was true last month.
- How strong the evidence is
- strong for central bank buying, weak for the big investor funds
What we look at
We add up central bank gold reserves from IMF monthly reports (International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity, IRFCL). Then we convert the total into a 12-month change. We also track how much gold the SPDR fund (GLD) actually holds, as a 12-month change.
Why it matters if you're buying gold
Some buying does not care what the price is. Central banks are the official banks that issue each country's money, and they keep savings for emergencies. Since 2022 many have been moving part of those savings into gold, more than 1,000 tonnes a year for three years running. The reason is defensive. Money held abroad can be frozen by the country holding it. Gold in your own vault cannot. That link has been tested and published (Arslanalp, Eichengreen and Simpson-Bell, IMF Working Paper 23/14). A decision of that size is taken over years, by committees, and it does not reverse because the price rose last week. That makes it the steadiest floor under demand on this page. We also watch gold ETFs. Those move at the same time as the price. So they confirm what already happened, instead of hinting at what comes next. They carry a small weight for that reason.
What this cannot tell you
Strong for central banks, weak for ETF flows. Central bank buying has a peer-reviewed sanctions channel and three straight years above 1,000 tonnes. ETF flows move with the price, so we treat them as confirming rather than predicting. This condition weights the central bank piece accordingly.
Today's reading in plain words
Today this condition reads 49/100, near the historical middle.
The pieces we blend
| Piece | Score | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Central-bank buying | 42/100 | Higher than 41.56% of its own past. Up 0.68% over 12 months. Newest figure dated August 31, 2026. Newest figure 20 days old. 302 months of history. |
| Fund holdings (ETF) | 57/100 | Higher than 56.97% of its own past. Up 7.91% over 12 months. Newest figure dated September 17, 2026. Newest figure 3 days old. 251 months of history. |
How the score is worked out
Each piece (central bank buying, ETF flows) gets its own 0 to 100 rank against its own past. We combine the two into this condition's score. A positive 12-month change on either lifts the score.
Which way it points. Rising central bank reserves and rising ETF holdings raise the score. Draining reserves and outflows lower it.
What the evidence says
- World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends: 2022 central bank purchases hit 1,081.9 tonnes, a record. 2023 was revised to 1,050.8 tonnes. 2024 was revised to 1,092.4 tonnes. The 2010 to 2021 average was 473 tonnes a year. Fifteen straight years of net buying.
- Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025, down 21% from 2024's revised 1,092 tonnes. That was the first year below 1,000 tonnes after three straight years above. Source: World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends: Q4 and Full Year 2025.
- WGC Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2025: 95% of central banks expect global reserves to rise in the next 12 months. 43% expect their own reserves to rise.
- Arslanalp, Eichengreen and Simpson-Bell (IMF WP 23/14, published in the Journal of International Economics 2023): sanctions predict later central bank gold buying.
- ETF flows are published monthly by the World Gold Council. They tend to follow the gold price rather than lead it.
If you are selling
If you are selling physical gold, dealer bids tend to sit firm when central banks are buying heavily. Selling goes through smoothly. When central bank buying eases off, dealer bids widen. The effect on a seller is on execution friction, not direction.
Source: International Monetary Fund, IRFCL (central bank reserves). We quote limited extracts from World Gold Council statistics for review and commentary. The full series is not republished on this site. See the methodology page for the full formula, and the provenance page for where each number comes from and how fresh it is.