The seven conditions
The Barometer blends seven measured conditions into a single 0 to 100 reading. Each has its own page. Each page opens with a plain sentence and shows today's reading. It explains how the signal is measured, sets out the evidence, and says where the evidence is thin. Two examples of what they track: what cash really earns after inflation, and the premiums a dealer charges over the metal price.
- Cash after inflation 25% 37/100 today
What money in a savings account really earns once rising prices have taken their cut. When savings earn little, holding gold costs you little.
- Entry price 20% 24/100 today
Whether gold looks dear or cheap next to its own past. We compare today with its trend over the last year, and with its level over decades.
- Central-bank buying 15% 49/100 today
How much gold the world's official banks are buying to keep as savings. Also how much sits in the funds that let large investors move in and out.
- US dollar 10% 45/100 today getting old
How strong the US dollar is. Gold is priced in dollars everywhere, so a weaker dollar makes the same ounce cheaper for buyers outside America.
- Trader bets 10% 25/100 today
How heavily professional traders are already betting on gold. When nearly all of them bet the same way, the price gets fragile.
- Price jumpiness 10% 6/100 today
How jumpy the gold price has been lately. Jumpy stretches make the day you happen to buy matter far more. It does not predict the price.
- Retail premiums 0% unavailable not counted today
How much extra shops charge above the raw metal price for a coin you can hold. It is the part of your cost you can shop around for.