The seven conditions
The Barometer blends seven measured conditions into a single 0 to 100 reading. Each has its own page. Each page opens with a plain sentence and shows today's reading. It explains how the signal is measured, sets out the evidence, and says where the evidence is thin. Two examples of what they track: what cash really earns after inflation, and the premiums a dealer charges over the metal price.
- Cash after inflation 25% 32/100 today
What money in a savings account really earns once rising prices have taken their cut. When savings earn little, holding gold costs you little.
- Entry price 20% 36/100 today
Whether gold looks dear or cheap next to its own past. We compare today with its trend over the last year, and with its level over decades.
- Central-bank buying 15% 45/100 today
How much gold the world's official banks are buying to keep as savings. Also how much sits in the funds that let large investors move in and out.
- US dollar 10% 31/100 today
How strong the US dollar is. Gold is priced in dollars everywhere, so a weaker dollar makes the same ounce cheaper for buyers outside America.
- Trader bets 10% 34/100 today getting old
How heavily professional traders are already betting on gold. When nearly all of them bet the same way, the price gets fragile.
- Price jumpiness 10% 15/100 today
How jumpy the gold price has been lately. Jumpy stretches make the day you happen to buy matter far more. It does not predict the price.
- Retail premiums 0% unavailable not counted today
How much extra shops charge above the raw metal price for a coin you can hold. It is the part of your cost you can shop around for.
How the seven combine
Each condition is ranked against its own recorded past, from 0 to 100, then weighted by the figure shown beside its name. A condition with no usable data on a given day is dropped, and the others are reweighted. The full recipe, with the evidence behind each weight, is on the methodology page.
Which of these moved over the last 7 and 30 days, with figures, is on why is gold going up or down, rebuilt every night. What followed each zone of the blended score since 1971 is on the record page.