Should You Sell Your Gold Now?

A month like this one was a costly month to sell. In the 153 months since 1971 that read in this zone, selling missed a median 3.7% of rise over the following year, before inflation. As of October 9, 2026, The Gold Barometer reads 33 out of 100.

Rise missed by selling

3.7%

Middle · over the next year

Worst fall escaped by selling

3.4%

Middle · deepest dip inside the year

One email per zone change

Get one email the day gold buying conditions enter a new zone. Up or down.

Since 1971 that has happened 94 times, about twice a year. The last time was March 2026.

What the record says

In months like this one, the rise a seller missed outweighed the worst fall a seller escaped.

The same fact, in money. $10,000 of gold sold in a month scoring like today's gave up about $366 of rise over the following year, before inflation.

Both figures are middle results across this zone since 1971. The Barometer does not say sell or hold. It scores buying conditions on the home page, and this page reads that record from the other side.

The instrument behind these numbers

The dial below is the one from the home page, and it measures conditions for a buyer, not a sell score. The seller numbers on this page come from the same record, read from the other side: what followed the months that scored like today.

33/100

Buying conditions · October 9, 2026

Buying conditions today: Unfavorable
Months like this since 1971: 153
Rise a seller missed over 3 years: 0.0%

Which of the seven conditions moved this month is on why is gold going up or down. Each condition has its own page.

The two numbers a seller faces

Every zone in the record carries two seller numbers. The first is the rise a seller missed: the median gain over the year after selling. The second is the fall a seller escaped: the median drop that never reached them. The last column is different: it is the deepest dip at any point inside the year, middle case. When history showed no gain or no fall, the cell reads 0.0%.

Zone	Score range	Months in this zone	Gain given up after 1 year	Gain given up after 3 years	Fall escaped within 1 year	Fall escaped within 3 years	Worst fall escaped within a year
Historically very favorable	80-100	0	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Favorable	60-79	110	5.8%	40.5%	0.0%	0.0%	4.2%
Mixed	40-59	379	6.5%	17.5%	0.0%	0.0%	3.7%
Unfavorable	20-39	153	3.7%	0.0%	0.0%	5.1%	3.4%
Historically very unfavorable	0-19	27	9.7%	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	6.0%

These are middle results since 1971, measured on the gold price alone. The full record, with the buyer's side and every failure of the framework, lives on the history page.

Where does your own entry sit?

If you note the month you bought, this page can place it on the record and compare it with today at every visit.

A low reading is not a sell signal

It is tempting to read a score of 33 as an instruction. The record does not support that reading. Over one year, a lower score did not reliably mean a better year to buy. The methodology page shows where the order breaks, with numbers.

The instrument is built for money held over years. Its seller record measures the same long holding periods. What it offers is a measured record of what followed, in place of a feeling about a headline.

Selling jewelry is a different trade

A coin or bar sells close to the metal price. Jewelry does not. A jewelry buyer pays for the weight and purity of the metal, keeps a margin, and prices any collector value separately. Two offers for the same piece can sit far apart, because the margin is the buyer's choice.

The Barometer measures conditions in the metal, not any buyer's margin. A high metal price lifts the floor under every offer. It does not narrow the gap between offers.

The round trip has a cost

Selling with a plan to buy back later crosses the dealer's spread twice: once on the way out, once on the way back in. The premium, what a dealer charges above the metal price, is one side of that cost. The retail premiums part of the score tracks it every day. A seller who returns later pays whatever the premium is on that day, not today's.

In the United States, selling gold at a profit can also create a tax bill. The rules depend on how the gold was held. That sits outside this instrument.

Common questions

Does a low reading mean it is time to sell?

No. A low reading says buying conditions rank poorly against every month since 1971. The seller table on this page shows what selling in each zone actually cost or saved. Over one year, a lower score did not reliably mean a better year to buy, and the methodology page says so with numbers.

What did sellers give up in months that read like today, October 9, 2026?

The reading is 33 out of 100, in the unfavorable zone. Across the 153 months in this zone since 1971, a seller missed a median 3.7% of rise over one year and 0.0% over three. The worst fall escaped within a year was a median 3.4%.

Is selling gold jewelry the same decision?

No. Jewelry sells for the weight and purity of its metal, minus the buyer's margin, plus any collector value the piece carries. The Barometer measures conditions in the metal itself. It says nothing about any buyer's margin.

Does The Gold Barometer send sell alerts?

It sends one email the day the reading moves to a new zone, in either direction, and nothing else. A seller and a buyer read the same alert from opposite sides.

Today's reading, with the buyer's verdict and the evidence behind it, is on the home page. One email goes out the day the reading moves to a new zone, in either direction. The sign-up is just below.