Why Is Gold Going Up or Down Right Now?
As of October 9, 2026, gold is at $4,194 an ounce, +1.3% over 7 days and -4.6% over 30 days. The Gold Barometer reads 33 out of 100. Of the 6 conditions counted in today's score, 5 moved by 5 points or more in 30 days. In points: US dollar -13, Trader positioning +12, Entry price +11, Price jumpiness +10, Cash yield after inflation -10.
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Get one email the day gold buying conditions enter a new zone. Up or down.
Since 1971 that has happened 94 times, about twice a year. The last time was March 2026.
What the record says
This page does not say why. It says what moved at the same time as the price, and how strong the research behind each condition is.
Over the last 30 days the price went down 4.6%. The score changed by +1 over the same stretch, from 32 to 33. The biggest single move was us dollar, -13 points.
A condition that moved with the price is not a cause. Most of the research behind these six is about things moving together, not one leading the other. The daily archive behind this page starts on August 5, 2026, so the 30-day figures rest on a few weeks of record.
The six conditions, and how far each moved
Read one row across: the reading today, its move in points over 7 and 30 days, the figure behind it, and the evidence.
| Condition | Today, out of 100 | 7 days, in points | 30 days, in points | The figure behind it | What raises it | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | 32 | -4 | -13 | 121.03 (+2.1% in 30 days) | A weak or falling US dollar raises the score. A strong or rising dollar lowers it. | moderate, and partly mechanical |
| Trader positioning | 34 | +5 | +12 | 21.76% (-2.6 pt in 30 days) | A low crowding rank gives a high score. The signal concentrates at the tails. The middle carries little information. | weak to moderate |
| Entry price | 34 | -1 | +11 | $4,319 (-2.1% in 30 days) | A low real price against history, and a price below its 12-month trend, both push the score higher. | strong on valuation, moderate on trend |
| Price jumpiness | 15 | +2 | +10 | not published, by licence | Low jumpiness raises the score. High jumpiness lowers it. | weak |
| Cash yield after inflation | 32 | 0 | -10 | 2.92% (+0.5 pt in 30 days) | Lower or falling cash yield after inflation lifts the score. Higher yields lower it. | strong, with a break from 2022 to 2024 |
| Central bank and fund demand | 46 | -1 | -1 | see the signal page | Rising central bank reserves and rising ETF holdings raise the score. Draining reserves and outflows lower it. | strong for central banks, weak for funds |
Today is the reading of October 9, 2026. Seven and thirty days ago are the archived readings of October 2, 2026 and September 9, 2026. Points are on each condition's own 0 to 100 scale. The cash yield and the dollar index are five-day medians, as the score uses them. The price jumpiness figure comes from a licensed series and is published only as a score. Retail premiums are collected daily but not yet counted in the score.
What followed months with a move like this one, since 1971
Each row is a band of months by how much the monthly average price changed from the month before. Read across for what followed.
| Move in the month | Months since 1971 | 1 year later, before inflation | Higher 1 year later | Worst 1-year case | 5 years later, before inflation | 5 years later, after inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down more than 5% | 48 | +2.7% | 61.7% of 47 | -33.9% | +25.9% | +5.7% |
| Down 2% to 5% (nearest to the last 30 days) | 105 | -0.1% | 50.0% of 100 | -34.6% | +14.4% | -2.4% |
| Within 2% | 296 | +3.7% | 58.6% of 295 | -33.9% | +31.9% | +10.1% |
| Up 2% to 5% | 121 | +11.7% | 70.2% of 121 | -31.1% | +50.4% | +24.8% |
| Up more than 5% | 98 | +17.6% | 71.0% of 93 | -36.4% | +53.3% | +20.2% |
Monthly average prices, World Bank series, each month against the one before. The last complete month, September 2026, moved -2.1%. The 30-day move of the daily price above is a neighbouring measure, not the same one. That is why the nearest band is marked rather than matched. Across the record the monthly average rose in 50.0% of months.
What each condition does to the price, one chain at a time
US dollar. Gold is priced in dollars. When the dollar strengthens against other currencies, an ounce costs more abroad and the dollar price tends to soften. Part of that link is arithmetic, not appetite, and the research grades it moderate. Evidence: moderate, and partly mechanical.
Trader positioning. Traders in the futures market who bet on a rising price add fuel while they build positions and remove it when they unwind. They follow the trend more than they lead it. The research finds little forecast value outside the extremes. Evidence: weak to moderate.
Entry price. A price high against its own past has tended to be followed by weaker gains over the following years. A price above its own 12-month trend has tended to keep climbing for a while. The two checks can point opposite ways in the same month. Evidence: strong on valuation, moderate on trend.
Price jumpiness. When the price jumps around more, some buyers wait and some sellers hurry. No published study finds that the level of jumpiness predicts what gold does next. We measure it, and we grade the evidence weak. Evidence: weak.
Cash yield after inflation. Gold pays nothing for waiting. When savings earn more after inflation, holding gold costs that yield, and fewer buyers accept the cost. When savings earn little, the cost of holding gold shrinks. The link was strong from 2001 to 2021 and failed from 2022 to 2024. Evidence: strong, with a break from 2022 to 2024.
Central bank and fund demand. Central banks buy in size and rarely sell, so their purchases remove metal from the market for years. Funds that hold gold for savers buy and sell with the price, so their flows tend to follow it rather than lead it. Evidence: strong for central banks, weak for funds.
Why this page never says because
Six things are measured here, and on any given month several of them move. Picking one and calling it the reason would be a story, not a measurement. The chains above say how each condition works on the price in general. The table says which moved this month. The reader holds both, and the site does not join them for the reader.
The seven parts, with today's reading for each and the research behind it, are on the signals pages. Where the price stands against its own past after inflation is on is gold expensive right now. What followed each fall of 20% or more is on gold price dropping: buy the dip or stay out.
The instrument behind these numbers
- Buying conditions today
- Unfavorable
- Months like this since 1971
- 153
- Score over 7 days
- 0 points
Related questions
- Gold price is dropping: buy the dip or stay out?
- Is gold expensive right now?
- How much gold each country holds
Common questions
Why is gold going up today?
It is not, over the last 30 days: the price is -4.6%, and +1.3% over 7 days. 5 of the measured conditions moved alongside it. In points: US dollar -13, Trader positioning +12, Entry price +11, Price jumpiness +10, Cash yield after inflation -10. This site measures conditions and does not assign causes.
Why is gold going down today?
Over the last 30 days the price is -4.6%, and +1.3% over 7 days. 5 of the measured conditions moved alongside it. In points: US dollar -13, Trader positioning +12, Entry price +11, Price jumpiness +10, Cash yield after inflation -10. This site measures conditions and does not assign causes.
Why are gold prices rising over the longer run?
Three measured conditions carry most of the record. Savings that earn little after inflation make holding gold cheap. A weaker dollar makes an ounce cheaper abroad. Central banks buying in size take metal off the market for years. The first two are read daily above. The research behind each, with its grade, is on the signal pages.
Why is the gold price so high right now?
Measured after inflation, the September 2026 average price stood higher than most months since 1960. What followed months that stood this high, and the two ways to read "expensive", are on the page about whether gold is expensive right now. This page only says what moved over the last 30 days.
Does a stronger dollar make gold fall?
Often they move opposite ways, and part of that is arithmetic: gold is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes an ounce dearer abroad. The research grades the link moderate and finds no forecast value beyond what cash yields already say.
Do central banks make the price go up?
Their buying is the best documented of the six conditions. Central banks buy in size and rarely sell, so what they take stays out of the market for years. That is a mechanism, not a timing tool: their purchases are reported with a lag.
Can this page say where the price goes next?
No. It says what moved at the same time as the price, and what followed months with a move of similar size since 1971. Those are medians of many different eras, with the worst case shown next to them.
Today's reading, with the buyer's verdict and the evidence behind it, is on the home page. This page is rebuilt every night with the new reading. One email goes out the day the reading moves to a new zone, in either direction. The sign-up is just below.
One email per zone change
Get one email the day gold buying conditions enter a new zone. Up or down.
Since 1971 that has happened 94 times, about twice a year. The last time was March 2026.