Buy Gold All at Once or Over Twelve Months?
As of October 9, 2026, spreading a gold purchase over its first year ended behind buying all at once in 58.6% of 609 starting months. That is the result five years later, for every starting month since 1971. The median gap was -1.6%, and the worst -36.5%. The Gold Barometer reads 33 out of 100.
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Since 1971 that has happened 94 times, about twice a year. The last time was March 2026.
What the record says
Spreading a gold purchase over its first year usually ended a little behind going in at once. The gap was small in the middle case and wide at the edges.
The reason is plain. Gold ended a year higher more often than lower, so a buyer who waited paid more for the later twelfths. When the price fell through the first year, the same buyer paid less, and spreading ended ahead. Which of the two a starting month would turn out to be was not knowable at the time.
Spreading is not done to end with more. It is done to soften a bad first month. The picker below replays both ways from any month since 1971, so the price of that comfort can be read rather than guessed. Every purchase also carries a premium over the price shown, and twelve buys pay it twelve times.
Replay it from any month
Pick a starting month, an amount and how long to hold. The table shows what each way came to at the end, from the monthly average prices of the record.
| Way of buying | Ounces bought | Worth at the end | Change, before inflation | Worth in starting-month dollars | Change, after inflation | Worst drop on the way | Months below the money paid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All at once, in September 2021 | 5.63 oz | $24,332 | +143.3% | $19,947 | +99.5% | -6.3% | 5 |
| A twelfth a month for twelve months | 5.48 oz | $23,688 | +136.9% | $19,419 | +94.2% | -8.7% | 8 |
Spread out against all at once, at the end: -2.6%. Monthly average prices in US dollars, World Bank series. Both ways are valued at the end month. Starting-month dollars divide by the US consumer price index, so the two values compare buying power. Worst drop is the lowest the holding fell against the money paid so far. No premium, storage or tax is counted. Spreading here means buying over time, not the gap between a buying and a selling price.
Five years later, by what the barometer read at the start
Read one row across: how often spreading ended ahead from months in that zone, and the middle gap.
| Barometer at the start | Starting months | Twelve buys ended ahead | Middle gap | Worst gap | Best gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historically very favorable | 0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Favorable | 110 | 41.8% | -2.4% | -28.7% | +21.2% |
| Mixed | 346 | 37.3% | -2.7% | -36.5% | +33.2% |
| Unfavorable | 126 | 53.2% | +0.3% | -23.3% | +20.0% |
| Historically very unfavorable | 27 | 37.0% | -3.1% | -31.1% | +19.4% |
| All months since 1971 | 609 | 41.4% | -1.6% | -36.5% | +33.2% |
Gap means the twelve-buy holding against the all-at-once holding at five years, before inflation. The middle gap by zone matches the figure on the history page to a quarter of a point, by construction. The page refuses to build otherwise. Five-year stretches overlap heavily, so these are eras, not independent bets.
Over one year and over ten
Over one year, spreading ended ahead in 39.6% of 657 starting months, with a middle gap of -2.2%. Over ten years, in 42.4% of 549, with a middle gap of -1.5%. The longer the hold, the less the first year's timing weighs.
The month of the year has its own record, on the best time to buy gold. The zone table above uses the same rule as what every score meant next since 1971, which lists what followed each zone. What a single year of purchase came to is on what $10,000 of gold bought in each year is worth now. What waiting for a fall has meant is on should you wait for gold to drop.
The instrument behind these numbers
- Buying conditions today
- Unfavorable
- Months like this since 1971
- 153
- Starting months replayed
- 609
Which of the seven conditions moved this month is on why is gold going up or down. Each condition has its own page.
Related questions
- What $10,000 of gold bought in each year is worth now
- When is the best time to buy gold?
- Should you wait for gold to drop before buying?
Common questions
Which came out ahead more often, all at once or over twelve months?
All at once. Over five years, spreading ended behind in 58.6% of the 609 starting months since 1971. Gold ended a year higher more often than lower, so the later purchases usually cost more than the first.
When did spreading it out end ahead?
In months that read unfavorable on the barometer, spreading ended ahead in the middle case. The price kept falling for a while, so the later purchases cost less. Everywhere else it ended behind.
Then why spread a purchase at all?
Not to end with more. To end with less regret if the price falls right after the first buy, and to pay in twelve smaller pieces. The table shows what that cost on the record. Note that each purchase carries a premium over the price, so twelve buys pay it twelve times.
Is this what people call dollar cost averaging?
Yes. Buying a fixed sum at fixed intervals is often called dollar cost averaging, against a single purchase. This page keeps to plain words: all at once, or a twelfth a month. It is also the calculator some readers look for. Pick the month, the amount and the hold, and both ways are replayed on the real record.
How is the money after inflation measured?
Both results are turned into dollars of the starting month with the US consumer price index. So the figure answers: how much of the shopping of that month would this buy at the end. The twelve buys were paid over a year, and this simplification treats them all as starting-month dollars.
Today's reading, with the buyer's verdict and the evidence behind it, is on the home page. One email goes out the day the reading moves to a new zone, in either direction. The sign-up is just below.
One email per zone change
Get one email the day gold buying conditions enter a new zone. Up or down.
Since 1971 that has happened 94 times, about twice a year. The last time was March 2026.