{
  "date": "2026-10-14",
  "score": 33,
  "score_precise": 33.158,
  "zone": "Unfavorable",
  "version": "1.0",
  "engine_build": "2026-08-12",
  "api_version": 1,
  "pillars_used": 6,
  "pillars_total": 7,
  "weights_nominal": {
    "real_rates": 25,
    "entry_price": 20,
    "structural_demand": 15,
    "dollar": 10,
    "positioning": 10,
    "volatility": 10,
    "premiums": 0.0
  },
  "weights_effective": {
    "real_rates": 27.7778,
    "entry_price": 22.2222,
    "structural_demand": 16.6667,
    "dollar": 11.1111,
    "positioning": 11.1111,
    "volatility": 11.1111,
    "premiums": 0.0
  },
  "pillars": {
    "real_rates": {
      "name": "real_rates",
      "available": true,
      "subscore": 31.56,
      "latest_date": "2026-10-13",
      "latest_value": 2.91,
      "unit": "%",
      "source": "TIPS 10Y (H.15)",
      "frequency": "daily",
      "staleness_days": 1,
      "stale_limit_days": 7,
      "history_points": 778,
      "publishable_raw": true,
      "notes": "Lower real rates historically preceded better long-term gold returns (EVIDENCE-BASE.md \u00a71). 2022+ regime break published separately.",
      "weight_nominal": 25,
      "weight_effective": 27.7778,
      "evidence_grade": "strong (documented 2022 regime-break caveat)",
      "staleness_flag": "fresh"
    },
    "entry_price": {
      "name": "entry_price",
      "available": true,
      "subscore": 35.83,
      "latest_date": "2026-09-30",
      "latest_value": 4319.0,
      "unit": "USD/toz (WB monthly)",
      "source": "World Bank Pink Sheet (CC BY 4.0)",
      "frequency": "monthly",
      "staleness_days": 14,
      "stale_limit_days": 45,
      "history_points": 801,
      "publishable_raw": true,
      "sub_signals": {
        "trend": {
          "subscore": 70.72,
          "dev_vs_12m_ma_pct": -7.84,
          "return_12m_pct": 1.1,
          "ma_window": "12 months (monthly proxy for 200dma; daily gold history not in pipeline v1)",
          "spot_used_usd_toz": 4102.65
        },
        "valuation": {
          "subscore": 0.94,
          "real_price_percentile": 99.06,
          "deflator": "US CPI-U (CUSR0000SA0), same-month",
          "reference": "Erb & Harvey golden constant"
        }
      },
      "weight_nominal": 20,
      "weight_effective": 22.2222,
      "evidence_grade": "strong (Moskowitz\u2013Ooi\u2013Pedersen momentum; Erb\u2013Harvey valuation)",
      "staleness_flag": "fresh"
    },
    "structural_demand": {
      "name": "structural_demand",
      "available": true,
      "subscore": 44.78,
      "latest_date": "2026-10-13",
      "latest_value": null,
      "unit": "12m change of holdings",
      "source": "IMF IRFCL (central bank reserves) + SPDR GLD tonnes (fund holdings)",
      "frequency": "mixed",
      "staleness_days": 1,
      "stale_limit_days": 45,
      "history_points": 303,
      "publishable_raw": true,
      "sub_signals": {
        "cb_purchases": {
          "available": true,
          "subscore": 42.74,
          "percentile": 42.74,
          "change_12m_pct": 0.704,
          "latest_date": "2026-09-30",
          "prior_date": "2025-09-30",
          "staleness_days": 14,
          "history_points": 303
        },
        "etf_flows": {
          "available": true,
          "subscore": 46.83,
          "percentile": 46.83,
          "change_12m_pct": 3.467,
          "latest_date": "2026-10-13",
          "prior_date": "2025-10-13",
          "staleness_days": 1,
          "history_points": 252
        }
      },
      "weight_nominal": 15,
      "weight_effective": 16.6667,
      "evidence_grade": "strong for central banks, weak for ETF flows",
      "staleness_flag": "fresh"
    },
    "dollar": {
      "name": "dollar",
      "available": true,
      "subscore": 31.43,
      "latest_date": "2026-10-09",
      "latest_value": 121.2708,
      "unit": "index (H.10 broad)",
      "source": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.10)",
      "frequency": "weekly release",
      "staleness_days": 5,
      "stale_limit_days": 14,
      "history_points": 5208,
      "publishable_raw": true,
      "notes": "Numeraire caveat (Pukthuanthong\u2013Roll) published on /methodology/.",
      "weight_nominal": 10,
      "weight_effective": 11.1111,
      "evidence_grade": "moderate (numeraire caveat)",
      "staleness_flag": "fresh"
    },
    "positioning": {
      "name": "positioning",
      "available": true,
      "subscore": 33.79,
      "latest_date": "2026-10-06",
      "latest_value": 21.761,
      "unit": "% of open interest",
      "source": "CFTC COT disaggregated, managed money (Socrata kh3c-gbw2)",
      "frequency": "weekly",
      "staleness_days": 8,
      "stale_limit_days": 10,
      "history_points": 1061,
      "publishable_raw": true,
      "notes": "Contrarian orientation applied across the full percentile range; effective signal concentrates at extremes.",
      "weight_nominal": 10,
      "weight_effective": 11.1111,
      "evidence_grade": "weak-to-moderate (contrarian at extremes only)",
      "staleness_flag": "aging"
    },
    "volatility": {
      "name": "volatility",
      "available": true,
      "subscore": 15.47,
      "percentile": 84.53,
      "latest_date": "2026-10-14",
      "staleness_days": 0,
      "stale_limit_days": 7,
      "history_points": 4292,
      "source": "Cboe Gold Volatility Index (GVZ), licensed series, published as a score only",
      "frequency": "daily",
      "publishable_raw": false,
      "notes": "Percentile rank is non-reversible without our full internal history (DATA-RIGHTS hard constraint). Raw GVZ values are not published.",
      "weight_nominal": 10,
      "weight_effective": 11.1111,
      "evidence_grade": "weak - risk/entry-quality gauge with no predictive claim",
      "staleness_flag": "fresh"
    },
    "premiums": {
      "name": "premiums",
      "available": false,
      "reason": "insufficient history (72 days < 90)",
      "source": "The Gold Barometer premium collector (7-dealer basket)",
      "frequency": "daily",
      "ramping": true,
      "min_history_days": 90,
      "latest_date": "2026-10-14",
      "latest_premium_pct": 1.896,
      "history_days": 72,
      "note": "Pillar is being observed but not scored until 90-day history threshold is met.",
      "weight_nominal": 0.0,
      "weight_effective": 0.0,
      "evidence_grade": "cost argument incontestable; predictive value anecdotal",
      "staleness_flag": "dropped"
    }
  },
  "about": {
    "publisher": "The Gold Barometer",
    "site": "https://thegoldbarometer.com/",
    "methodology": "https://thegoldbarometer.com/methodology/",
    "license": "CC BY 4.0",
    "credit": "Source: The Gold Barometer, thegoldbarometer.com"
  },
  "alerts": {
    "what": "One free email each time the reading moves to a new zone, in either direction. No other mail.",
    "url": "https://thegoldbarometer.com/alerts/"
  }
}